Panel size is part art, part science. Here is the science.

The Model

Capacity for New Patients = Panel Capacity Attributed Lives + Attrition
Panel Capacity The number of patients a provider can manage Capacity for New Patients New patients this provider can sustainably add Attrition Patients expected to leave this panel next year Attributed Lives Patients on this provider's panel today

PanelWise helps organizations shift from binary open/close decisions to setting new patient targets for each provider based on their individual panel sizes.

The art of managing panel size lies in knowing your patients, communities, providers, clinics and unique capabilities. When you pair that with a scientific, data-driven approach, plans are rooted in reality and results follow.

Panel Capacity

How many patients can one doctor manage? Mark Murray posed that question in a landmark 2007 paper, and his supply-demand framework became the standard starting point for panel sizing. PanelWise takes that framework, refined through 10+ years of real-world application inside a 2,000-provider medical group, to calculate panel size for each provider individually.

Panel Capacity = Visits for Your PanelVisits Per Patient
Visits for Your Panel Visits Per Patient
What it is The total visits a provider and their care team generate. Includes visits from APPs supporting that provider's panel. The number of visits per patient for that provider's panel of patients.
Accounts for
  • Clinical hours or FTE status
  • New provider ramp up & providers leaving
  • Productivity
  • Patient complexity – age/gender or HCC risk adjustment
  • Provider style – “come back next week” vs. “my nurse will call you”
  • Care team availability and usage
Bottom line A provider who sees 20 patients a day can have a larger panel than a provider who sees 16. A provider who sees their patients 2.5 times per year can have a larger panel than a provider who sees their patients 3.5 times per year.

Attributed Lives

How many patients are on this provider's panel today. Defining a panel requires two decisions, and different answers produce meaningfully different panel sizes.

Decision 1: Timeframe

When did a patient need to be seen last to be considered active?

36 months 24 months 18 months 12 months

Decision 2: PCP

Who is the patient's primary care provider?

EMR PCP Field
Attribution
Payer Assignment

PanelWise can mirror your existing attribution logic or show you alternatives side by side so you can compare how different rules change panel size and composition.

Attrition

Every year providers lose patients from their panel. Patients move, change insurances, pass away or stop visiting primary care. Attrition is both an outcome to plan for and a signal to monitor.

A provider whose panel is full will lose 5-15% of their patients to attrition. To keep their panel stable, they must see enough new patients to replace those that leave. High attrition rates are a signal that the patient-provider relationship is being disrupted. Analyzing trends and variation between clinics, providers and patient populations is vital.

Why This Matters

The traditional approach is picking a single benchmark and applying to all physicians, with adjustment for clinical hours. This approach leads to over-empanelment for some and under-empanelment for others. The numbers leaders are looking at don't match the reality in the clinic.

PanelWise replaces that guesswork with provider-specific calculations built from your own data so providers, clinic leaders and executives can align around the same picture of what panel capacity actually looks like.

Further Reading

Articles from Jason Harris on LinkedIn exploring panel management concepts in depth.

See how PanelWise calculates capacity for your providers.